JOB REPORT BRIGHTER – AT 8:42 A.M. ET:  The weekly jobs report just came out, and it shows continued, if less than spectacular, improvement.  From The New York Times:

The United States economy added 216,000 jobs in March, the Labor Department reported Friday, adding to hopes that hiring was finally on a steadier track despite concerns about overseas turmoil.

The gain in jobs slightly exceeded economists’ expectations. The unemployment rate continued to decline, to 8.8 percent.

Quite a few signs have pointed to this economic recovery finally gaining some momentum. The weekly unemployment claims have declined steadily, from the mid-400,000s to the neighborhood of 385,000. In most contexts, the latter would be a grim number. But in this slowest and most sluggish of recoveries, it points to fewer layoffs, and presumably to more hiring.

Still, threats to a more robust recovery remain, of course, including a surge in energy and food prices, with the possibility of disruptions in oil production in the Middle East continuing to weigh on the financial markets. State and local governments have also been shedding jobs as they grapple with budget woes.

COMMENT:  If the job picture improves, Mr. Obama will benefit mightily in 2012.  But the last paragraph we quoted is critical.  The rise in food and oil prices hits people where they live.  Even if they are gainfully employed, nothing will hit them more.  And housing is still in a deep recession.

We're always happy to see more people employed in the private sector, but I think we're far from out of the woods.  If we go into stagflation – a stagnant economy joined by rising prices – Obama will be in Carterland. 

April 1, 2011